Asteroid 2024 YR4 may have disappeared from telescopes, but it remains in the minds of astronomers eagerly awaiting its return.
The building-sized celestial body initially appeared to be on a potential collision course with Earth and is currently out of scientists’ field of observation as it continues its orbit around the sun.
However, scientists are waiting for its reappearance, as their latest calculations have turned their attention to another possible target: the Moon.
2024 YR4 was discovered in late 2024, and initial predictions indicated a chance of impact with Earth on December 22, 2032. This chance has fluctuated with each new observation, reaching a peak in February, when it reached 3.1% — a figure that made it the most dangerous asteroid ever observed.
Ground-based and space-based observations played a decisive role in revising the scenarios, which helped astronomers determine the asteroid’s size and orbit more precisely, and, ultimately, a collision with Earth was ruled out.
According to NASA, the latest observations in early June — before the asteroid temporarily disappeared from view — improved the accuracy of its 2032 position prediction by 20%.
If the asteroid collides with the moon in late 2032, it would be a unique event in human history. The impact could hurl lunar material into space, some of which could head toward Earth.
While the planet is not expected to suffer any serious physical impacts, potential lunar infrastructure or astronauts could be at risk.
Meanwhile, satellites in Earth orbit — critical for navigation, communication, and other essential functions — could be affected by the resulting scattering of debris. Even missions in low Earth orbit could find themselves in the path of the debris.
The International Space Station, however, would not be affected, as it is expected to be decommissioned long before the asteroid revisits Earth’s space neighborhood.
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